Thoughts at TRB 2023

In their early days, the disciplines of transportation engineering and urban planning were heavily technocratic. Both fields relied heavily on the opinions and judgments of select individuals who were deemed qualified to make such decisions and were in positions to do so. If the engineers and planners (who were usually just engineers in disguise) said a highway needed to cut through a city, it was so. They were deemed "the experts", and it was their way or the highway. Or, more accurately, their way was the highway. It was very easy to draw a thick line on top of a grid of smaller streets and receive automatic assent from elected officials (partially following from the fact that such highways received massive federal subsides and would create thousands of jobs).

Hindsight has taught us that the intra-city highway construction projects that were used as justification for urban renewal were not the best decisions for our cities. Therefore, most leading transportation and urban planning experts are now focusing on capital projects that serve the transportation needs of communities while seeking to undo the harms wrought in the 1950s through 1970s. Even at the highest level, Mary Pete's Department of Transportation is focused on knitting divided communities back together.

Generally, this has meant reducing the weight of the engineers' and planners' opinions and elevating other stakeholders' opinions—most often the communities which the proposed projects would impact. This is a messy and imperfect process, because Karen can sometimes manage to delay, increase the costs of, or block a truly beneficial project via the threat of an environmental lawsuit since free and abundant street parking is apparently required to preserve neighborhood character. But it does democratize the planning process, rather than permitting a few engineers to unilaterally make decisions on behalf of communities they usually don't live in.

This means that the transportation and planning fields have evolved to more sophisticated fields beyond technocrats saying, "this is what we need" and receiving blank checks. Sub-fields have sprung up focusing on art in transportation systems featuring local artists, station and terminal design to create a unique "sense of place", more robust and involved community outreach and engagement efforts, and tactical urbanism projects to "trial" a project and tweak it as appropriate based on the results of the trials. Much more thought is now given to not just the project itself, but also the impacts of the project.

I was struck by this line of thinking while attending the Transportation Research Board's Annual Meeting in January 2023. I attended a workshop that was focused on the design of transportation facilities in a post-pandemic world. One of the four speakers spoke on ongoing LA Metro station art projects, while another spoke on tactical urbanism. A third speaker represented the airport terminal perspective. The thesis of the airport perspective was that traditional airport planning methods and practices should be unaffected in the long-term by the changes caused by the pandemic, which were largely specific to the nature of the disease itself and were thus temporary.

It struck me that the airport industry seems to be focused on preserving its traditional methods and practices used in planning. The Airports Council International of North America (ACI-NA), a representative of whom was the aforementioned speaker, reached the previously described conclusion (that traditional airport planning practices would be unchanged in the long-term) in May 2020. COVID-19 was only months old at that point; how could ACI-NA draw such sweeping conclusions so early?

There is a general resistance in the airport development industry to changes which would destabilize these long-standing methods and practices. Many of the standard methods and practices in airport planning are rooted in transportation engineering theory. What these observations suggest is that the airport industry is still largely a technocratic-heavy field. The experts say what facilities and development are needed, and that's how it is.

Indeed, in my own experience, the community engagement aspect of airport planning is something that most airports try to weasel out of as much as possible. On-call planning contracts are generally becoming more popular than master plans as vessels for conducting most major planning, because the latter always require significant community engagement. When it is necessary to conduct community engagement, airports often carefully frame the story of what development is coming to try to obtain a quick and easy buy-in (or, more accurately, no objections) from the community. It is very rarely a fully transparent process focused on achieving a collective goal through collaboration to provide what is best for the community.

Needless to say, the airport development industry is lagging behind leading transportation trends. The field has not yet evolved to a level of sophistication where many of the secondary and tertiary elements of development are elevated to the primary focus.

2022 in flight

GOALS FOR 2022

In last year's year-end post, I set three goals for myself in 2022 with respect to my flights taken. Let's see how I did.

1. Retain status on an airline in 2022.

I met this goal, qualifying for status on Alaska Airlines for the fourth time, and retaining status for the fifth consecutive year. (Technically I did not qualify in 2020 for 2021; 2020 status levels were simply rolled over.)

2. Do not fly United in 2022.

I met this goal, going to extreme measures such as flying SFO-SEA-ABQ and ORD-SEA-PSP to avoid United, as well as some less extreme measures such as always flying to ONT out of OAK rather than out of SFO.

3. Fly at least once every month of 2022.

I did not meet this goal, missing April, July, and September. In April, I had just started a new job and had limited time off. Airfares in the summer were much more expensive than in previous years, and I still had not accrued much time off, leading to my dry spells in July and September. (August, too, but my only activity in that month was an out-and-back day trip on Breeze Airways' inaugural SFO-SBD route.) The strong wanderlust I felt from not traveling over the summer led to my October trip to Palm Springs.

YEAR-OVER-YEAR TRENDS

33,522 miles flown in 2022, measured as great-circle distances in statute miles. 21% increase over 2021; 460% increase over 2020.

32 segments flown in 2022. 45% increase over 2021; 300% increase over 2020.

$5,334.06 in airfare paid in 2022, which considers the actual amounts charged to my card, inclusive of airline credits, miles used, taxes, and fees. 104% increase over 2021; 357% increase over 2020.

EDITOR'S NOTE: The total for 2021 differs here than it did in last year's summary statistics. This changed because of the way I had previously logged fares for which I used my Alaska Airlines credit card companion fare benefit. Previously, I recorded the fare as the single-ticket price plus the companion fare, divided by two, to reflect the portion of the cost that I personally paid. I modified my log to record the full single-ticket price. In 2021, I had two such fares, and since the companion fare tends to be used on expensive tickets, the change made a difference of about $370 in the annual statistics.

I made this change because the previous method artificially deflated the cost per mile flown on itineraries for which I used the companion fare. However, recording the full single-ticket price is perhaps unrepresentative in that it suggests that I booked itineraries that I may not have otherwise booked.

Maybe I'll change it back next year.

The recurrent ones: Alaska, American, JetBlue, Southwest. Classic.

12 new segments in 2022...just like in 2021.

MORE ON MILES

9 / 12. An improvement over 2021, which was 7 / 12.

"Others": Breeze (2022), Icelandair (2021), Avelo (2021), and Sun Country (2021).

Boring.

Still boring.

More boring. The E190 is probably a first, though. Spoiler alert: it's another regional jet.

This is almost a horizontal mirror-image of the curve shape for this graph in 2021.

MORE ON MONEY

This year, I was more precise in the summary, including non-letter fare classes. It's not that I flew Southwest the most; it's simply that they have fewer fare classes than most other airlines.

I'm still not proud of that $380 ticket from ABQ to ORD, but my options were pretty limited.

My average cost per mile flown for leisure was significantly higher than last year ($0.078/mile), but I chalk that up to expensive airfares, inflation, and my lesser use of award miles in 2022.

"Lead time" is defined as how far in advance of departure the ticket was purchased. Among leisure trips, my 5-day lead time was an "emergency" award ticket I booked when my ride home from Southern California had to back out; and my 118-day lead time was SFO-EWR roundtrip on Alaska (holiday-time travel plans, so booked far in advance).

Starting this year, the percentiles are given based on continuous-variable representations of the discrete data. For example, I did not have an itinerary with a 57-day lead time (leisure 75th percentile). In previous years, I found the data points at which each percentile was met or exceeded.

I was trigger-shy on Saturdays, I guess.

MORE ON WHERE

No passport required.

A "visit" is defined as a segment either originating or terminating at a given airport. So connections grant two visits to the connecting airport.

The size of the font is directly proportional to the number of visits.

I did, in fact, fly to ABQ from SFO by way of SEA. And ORD to PSP by way of SEA.

This was supposed to be the top five routes over the last five years. But, there was a tie for fifth place, so it's the top six. Only five airports appear in these routes: SFO (4x), ONT (3x), OAK (2x), EWR (2x), ORD (1x).

These represent both enplaning and deplaning mode shares combined and excludes any connections. I considered slicing the two bars along that axis rather than the business/leisure axis, but decided against it.

Each color of bars sums to 100%.

"POV" also includes cases when I was picked up from or dropped off at the airport in another person's rental car. "Rental car" implies that I transited through the airport's rental car facilities. "Walk" typically includes cases where I am at a client site. In 2022, it also includes my arrival at SBD and departure from SBD for the Breeze inaugural round-trip SFO-SBD, which technically was not an O&D itinerary. I did walk out to the landside to see their bag claim, curbside, and check-in facilities. Yes, I did have to go through screening again.

WHILE IN FLIGHT

At least I'm consistent.

A "pushback pause" is defined as the time when the aircraft is stationary after being pushed back from the gate. Specifically, it begins when the aircraft stops moving backward and the tug begins detaching, and it ends when the aircraft begins moving forward on its own power.

This year, I've started including the cumulative distribution of pushback pauses since I started this log in 2016. Obtaining data around this specific statistic for use in simulation modeling was the initial reason for starting the log

Ibid re: cumulative distribution.

Bags checked consisted of a souvenir from returning from Disney World in January (one bag on one segment), as well transport of a piece of art in a box to Rockford, Illinois while on my Santa Fe/Durango between-jobs trip (one bag on three segments).

Upgrades are still fewer and farther between than pre-pandy.

RECORDS

A new project I started with this cycle of annual statistics was seeing how what I flew this year stacked up against my history. Rows highlighted in yellow are records that were set this year.

I did not add anything to the segment length records this year. In fact, these records have remained static since 2018.

This is the one record where I felt confident including data from prior to 2016. It is easier to remember specific segments you have flown 15 years ago and to look up their distances than the specific airline, aircraft, or sometimes even month you flew.

These data confirm an operational procedure about which the air traffic controllers at ONT informed me in 2019: Southwest Airlines' pushback pauses are generally shorter than other airlines'. This is so because Southwest permits its pilots to start the engines while the tug is pushing the aircraft. Indeed, four of my five shortest recorded pushback pauses were on Southwest flights.

The long pushback pauses can be somewhat misleading, in that an aircraft may be stopped on the ground before it has moved forward on its own power for reasons external to the aircraft--for example, the adjacent taxilane could be congested, or the airport could be shifting runway use configurations. The two longest pushback pauses I have recorded, for instance, really combine elements of the pushback pauses as well as ground delays imposed for aircraft headed to the inbound airport. On both of those flights, our wheels-up times were delayed to meter the future aircraft flow into SFO.

This record isn't terribly instructive, because it is often correlated with the number of segments on the itinerary. It is also subject to inflation. As described in the Editor's Note following the the "Total Fares Paid" graph, some tickets can also be difficult to classify in light of the companion fare issue. For instance, I would not have paid the full $667.20 fare for the fifth-most expensive single ticket if not for the companion fare; I would have chosen different travel dates or modified the itinerary in some way.

This record also is and will continue to be biased due to inflation. It is also impacted by the companion fare issue. Before I modified the total fares paid calculation, the current fifth lowest itinerary clocked in at the number one lowest, which, because of the shared cost between two people, would have come in around $0.038/mile.

Also, I'm sorry, but no itinerary involving ONT should ever cost as much as the first, second, and fourth highest did.

Same comments on the limitations of the spend statistic--inflation, companion fares, etc.

Virgin America lives on.

Consultant rite of passage unlocked: you find your repeated routes.

Actually, all of these except SFO-EWR were work-induced.

* * *

Introducing the Records this year, I realized how many needed to be constrained to 2016 or later. However, I have considered incorporating some historical data that (1) I have some confidence in, and (2) I believe would influence some of the records. For example, 2008 would be in my top five miles flown in a year. In 2008, I know I at least flew LAX-SJU and SJU-SFO (January 2008), OAK-MSY and MSY-LAS-OAK (March 2008), SFO-ATL-TLV and TLV-JFK-SFO (June 2008). In total, those sum to 27,666 miles, which would put 2008 in fourth place, a mere 35 miles more than 2021. Additionally, June 2008 would be my busiest month ever, with 16,840 miles, far exceeding the current leader (April 2018 with 12,733 miles).

Certainly, some records cannot be populated with historical data, such as pushback pauses and anything related to ticket price. Nevertheless, at this time next year, we will see whether my records tables account for pre-2016 data where appropriate.

HIGHLIGHTS FROM 2022

A lot of what I used to cover in this section (first-time airlines, first-time airports, etc.) are now baked into the previous graphs. Notwithstanding, here are some highlights:

First time flying to/from these U.S. states: New Mexico, North Carolina

First time flying on an airport's first commercial passenger service: SBD

Not much else to report, really. Still no diversions, go-arounds, or canceled flights.

GOALS FOR 2023

• Achieve airline status. It need not be on Alaska again.
• Avoid flying United.
• Fly at least once a month.
• Get out of the country again (i.e., travel internationally).
• Hit four new airports.